Below is the table with the expected visitor attendance based on the Decay Factor Analysis.
Please note that the attendance for the Wellness World is more difficult to predict. There is no model for this in North America. Here are some numbers for somehow comparable facilities in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Annual Visitors: Steinbach Aquatic Centre 45,000
Hartland Inn Winkler 22,000
Temple Garden Mineral Spa 255,000
We are confident that the Wellness and Spa Oasis of the NORTHERN RIVIERA - Waterpark & Spa will attract a very large number of regular visitors, similar to the European facilities, which are targeting mostly target groups 1, 2 and 5 to 9. Individuals in these target groups tend to have more time to visit these facilities, are more concerned about wellness and healthy lifestyle and they have a considerably larger disposable income. The feasibility study estimates that the Wellness Side will contribute app. 45,000 visitors. We believe that the number shown in the feasibility study for visitors attending mainly because of the “Wellness Environment” is low considering the size of the target group within the target market. We estimate another 60,000 to 100,000 visitors could be attracted by the Wellness and Spa World. However for the purpose of preparing this business plan and the resulting financials we assume the visitor numbers as predicted in the feasibility study.
Attendance Forecast 1
The attendance potential was assessed using the “Distance Decay Factor “Analysis. For more information on this please refer to the BDC Study. § You will find the expected number of Visitors that can be expected building a similar waterpark to Anchorage on the left side, marked in blue. In addition to the “Probable” attendance we also show the numbers for “Optimistic or high” and “Pessimistic or low” attendance.
The developer who suggested putting a waterpark in the old arena published the number of 500,000 expected visitors. We are confident that the probable number of visitors shown for the Leisure World above is very realistic.
 Numbers were given to us but could not be independently confirmed.
Now that the possible number of visitors has been determined we can determine the appropriate sizing of the required facility.
Based on 400,000 visitors and app. $12,000,000 annual revenues we can now accurately size the park.
Please find below the expected Visitor Distribution by months and by week. Please note that the attendance throughout the year is expected to be constant. Experience form Leisure Parks shows that the peak times are during school holidays. For this reason it can be expected that attendance will be the highest during the summer months. This has been confirmed by the numbers from Anchorage.
On the other hand the European Wellness Parks have their highest attendance during the cold months. We also expect a higher number of visitors without children during the cold season. On average the attendance can be expected to be balanced throughout the year. There is however a slow time expected at the end of the summer. This is due children returning to school and the cold season not having started yet. People will still enjoy the outdoors and outdoor activities.
The table shows that daily visitor numbers could be around 2000 on a busy day. This leaves the question whether the facility needs to be sized to handle an occupation load of 2000. The answer is no and the reasons are explained in the next paragraph.